Analytics company Opta has released an updated projection for the outcome of the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season, with Arsenal emerging as the leading contenders for the trophy.
According to Idman.Biz, citing Opta data as of 30 January, Arsenal are rated as the tournament’s main favourites. The north London club are given a 30 percent chance of lifting the Champions League, alongside a 47 percent probability of reaching the final and a 64 percent likelihood of progressing to the semi-finals.
Bayern Munich sit second in the rankings with a 15 percent chance of overall victory. They are followed by Manchester City on 10 percent and Liverpool on nine percent. The top six is completed by Chelsea and Barcelona, whose title chances are assessed at eight and seven percent respectively.
Just outside that group are Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle and Inter. Opta’s model gives less than a five percent chance of winning the competition to Sporting, Tottenham, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Benfica and Borussia Dortmund.
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One of the more striking elements of Opta’s forecast is the relatively modest outlook for Real Madrid, the record 15-time Champions League winners. Several clubs are rated ahead of them in terms of progression to the latter stages. Tottenham, for instance, are ranked 11th overall for outright victory but are given a 57 percent chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 21 percent probability of making the semi-finals, six percent of reaching the final and a two percent chance of winning the competition.
