The draw for the European zone of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification will take place today, and Azerbaijan’s group opponents will be determined.
Idman.biz presents the most desirable and undesirable options for Azerbaijan.
Formal Draw
After the recent UEFA Nations League games, the identity of our opponents no longer holds much significance. Having failed to defeat even a team like Estonia, which is not traditionally strong in football, and relegating to League D, any opponent now seems like a "giant" compared to us. If our own national team and players are this weak, there’s little point in looking for even weaker teams. In short, for Fernando Santos and his team, today’s event is largely symbolic and can be considered a formality. As in previous years, it is unrealistic to expect anything more than a fluke win against a weaker opponent. With the national team already expected to be an underdog in the group, the goal will be to achieve such surprises.
More Groups, Fewer Matches
Before the draw, it’s worth noting the format of the qualifiers. Organizers have opted for more groups with fewer matches, changing things slightly. The 54 participating teams, with Russia excluded, will be divided into 12 groups. Six of these groups will have 4 teams, and the other six will have 5 teams. This means that 24 teams will play 6 matches, while 30 teams will play 8. The group winners from the 2025 qualifiers will progress directly to the final tournament. The second-place teams will join the four teams from the Nations League in a playoff to fight for the last four spots.
42 Possible Opponents
The draw will see teams divided into five pots. Azerbaijan is in the fourth pot, which means it could face one of 42 potential opponents:
- Pot 1: Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Croatia, England, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria
- Pot 2: Turkiye, Ukraine, Wales, Sweden, Serbia, Hungary, Poland, Greece, Romania, Norway, Czech Republic, Slovakia
- Pot 3: Scotland, Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Georgia, Iceland, Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Finland, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland
- Pot 4: Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Armenia, Belarus, Faroe Islands, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, LUXEMBOURG, AZERBAIJAN, Lithuania
- Pot 5: Moldova, San Marino, Malta, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein, Andorra
Dream Group
As mentioned, our national team, which will play in League D of the Nations League, is one of the weakest in Europe, making it hard to imagine an ideal group. However, both Santos and the players, as well as fans, would prefer to be in a group with five teams, hoping to face weaker opponents from the last pot. Winning matches and earning points would be seen as a stroke of luck, though even that may seem out of reach for the current squad.
The “Ideal” Group
Let’s start with the last pot, where all six teams, though small, could still pose a challenge to our team. The most winnable would likely be San Marino, a team we once beat 5-1, offering hope for another 6 points in the group. The third pot contains teams of roughly equal strength, and Georgia stands out as a reasonable opponent. Our neighbors may have a number of European stars, but they are not a stable team. Additionally, Azerbaijan could send a solid number of fans to support the team during the away match. Beating Georgia in Baku is certainly not impossible. As for the strong teams in pots one and two, they may cause fear among our players, but it’s possible to snatch a point from them. A match against Slovakia, who we almost drew with last year, could yield a point, and even the aging Croatian squad might falter if we face them again. If Azerbaijan manages to win both games against San Marino, one game against Georgia, and earn a point from the top teams, a record-breaking 11 points could be possible. Of course, this will only happen if Santos finds the right players. Otherwise, the team could end up with no victories and finish last in the group.
Dream Group: Croatia, Slovakia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, San Marino
Risk of Finishing Without Points
Having ended the Nations League with just one point in Gabala, Azerbaijan could face an even tougher challenge in the World Cup qualifiers. There are many scenarios where the national team could struggle. Firstly, drawing a group with only four teams would be particularly bad. As an obvious underdog, Azerbaijan would struggle to find any source of points, and the team would likely serve as a point provider for others. Almost every team in Pot 1 would expect to take 6 points from Azerbaijan. For example, France, one of the toughest teams in Pot 1, would be a formidable opponent. Pot 2 is filled with teams that could also make it difficult for Santos to earn points. Sweden, who scored 9 goals against us in the last four months, and a well-performing Viktor Gyökeres make a rematch with them undesirable. From Pot 3, Scotland, whose style of play is less favorable to us, would also be a tough opponent.
Group of Death: France, Sweden, Scotland, Azerbaijan
The World Cup qualifying draw will start at 15:00 Baku time.
Vugar Kheyrullayev
Idman.biz
