Ahead of the Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the betting market has championship leader Kimi Antonelli as the main favourite, although one expert prediction points to a different winner.
As reported by İdman.Biz, the official Formula 1 website has published a special feature examining the betting expectations for the upcoming round in Baku. The Azerbaijan Grand Prix will take place on September 26 at the Baku City Circuit.
Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli currently has the shortest odds to win the race, with Stake pricing the Italian at 2.25. McLaren's Lando Norris is second at 5.00, followed by George Russell at 7.00. Charles Leclerc is priced at 8.00, while Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton are both available at 9.00.
The winning-team market also gives Mercedes a clear advantage. The odds on either of the German team's drivers taking victory stand at 1.72. McLaren follow at 4.00, ahead of Ferrari at 4.25 and Red Bull at 8.00.
However, Stake's own race prediction differs from the betting market. Despite Antonelli being the bookmakers' favourite, the platform's analysts expect Norris to claim victory in Baku.
Stake's predicted Azerbaijan Grand Prix podium:
1. Lando Norris – McLaren
2. Kimi Antonelli – Mercedes
3. George Russell – Mercedes
Stake points to Norris' recent performances as one of the reasons behind its prediction. At the previous round in Spain, the Briton started from pole position and led the race before losing the lead following a Virtual Safety Car period. Antonelli went on to win, while Norris finished third.
The analysts also believe the characteristics of the Baku City Circuit could suit the McLaren.
Particular attention is being paid to the unique nature of the Baku track. The circuit combines narrow and technically demanding street sections with extremely fast stretches. After Turn 16, drivers enter an approximately 2.2-kilometre flat-out section, helping produce some of the highest speeds on the Formula 1 calendar.
This forces teams to find a difficult compromise between downforce, low aerodynamic drag, mechanical grip and braking efficiency.
The prediction also highlights that pole position in Baku is far from a guarantee of victory. The long section from Turn 16 to Turn 1 provides significant overtaking opportunities through the use of the slipstream.
Another important factor is the possibility of a Safety Car. According to Stake, the Safety Car has appeared in more than half of the Formula 1 races held in Baku, meaning an accident or a well-timed intervention could significantly alter the course of the Grand Prix.
Antonelli arrives in Azerbaijan as the championship leader with 292 points. Russell is second on 211, Hamilton occupies third place with 191, while Norris is fourth with 186 points. The Italian Mercedes driver has won the last two rounds, in Monza and Madrid.
Three different drivers have won the last five Azerbaijan Grands Prix. Sergio Perez triumphed in 2021 and 2023, Max Verstappen won in 2022 and 2025, while Oscar Piastri took victory in 2024.
The Baku race weekend will run from September 24 to 26. Qualifying is scheduled for September 25 at 16:00, while the race will start on Saturday, September 26 at 15:00 Baku time.
The drivers will complete 51 laps of the 6.003-kilometre Baku City Circuit.
