The European club season will officially produce its first major trophy today. In Salzburg, Champions League winners PSG will face Europa League holders Aston Villa.
As reported by İdman.Biz, the UEFA Super Cup will take place on 12 August at Stadion Salzburg, better known as the Red Bull Arena. Kick-off is scheduled for 11pm Baku time. If the scores are level after 90 minutes, there will be no extra time and the match will go straight to a penalty shootout.
On paper, the favourites are obvious. PSG have won the last two Champions League titles, retained almost all of their key players and strengthened their squad over the summer. However, one factor could turn the Super Cup from a potentially one-sided affair into a much more intriguing contest: the Parisians have had virtually no proper pre-season preparation.
Aston Villa face a different problem. Unai Emery's side have had more time to prepare, but several key players have left the club over the summer, while three more senior figures will miss the match.
PSG: stronger team, questionable condition
When comparing the squads, the European champions have a significant advantage.
Luis Enrique's squad includes Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha, Joao Neves, Achraf Hakimi, Nuno Mendes, Marquinhos, Fabian Ruiz, Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola. Over the summer, PSG added Maghnes Akliouche from Monaco and surprisingly brought back Lucas Digne from Aston Villa. Both could make their debuts against Digne's former club. One notable departure was Lee Kang-in, who joined Atletico Madrid.
Most importantly, PSG have retained virtually all of the players who formed the backbone of the team that won the Champions League for a second successive year. Even Barcola, who has been heavily linked with Liverpool, remains a PSG player and has been included in the squad for the Super Cup.
The problem is not the names on the team sheet, but their legs.
Fifteen PSG players featured at the World Cup. The French, Spanish and Moroccan internationals only returned to the club on Monday, while the Brazilians and Portuguese players came back roughly a week before the match. Luis Enrique has therefore been fairly open in warning that it will be difficult to see PSG at their usual maximum level at this stage.
The pre-season results support that assessment. The Parisians played just two friendlies, losing 3-0 to Mallorca before drawing 1-1 with Manchester United.
In other words, the PSG we see today is an exceptionally strong team that may currently be only an approximation of its best version physically.
That is why Luis Enrique refused to endorse the idea that PSG are overwhelming favourites. He acknowledged that people now automatically regard his side as the strongest team, but stressed that they still have to prove that status on the pitch.
Kvaratskhelia could have an advantage
There is, however, one PSG player for whom the short preparation period may be less of a problem.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia did not play at the World Cup and has had significantly more time to rest and prepare.
Marquinhos specifically highlighted the Georgian winger's condition. According to the PSG captain, Kvaratskhelia has looked very good in training and is currently extremely difficult to defend against.
With several of his team-mates only just returning from the World Cup, Kvaratskhelia's freshness could prove to be one of PSG's key advantages.
That is also reflected in the views of Racing Post analysts, who have singled out the Georgian among their individual selections for the match.
Aston Villa: part of the winning team dismantled over the summer
Villa's situation is almost the mirror image.
Emery's side have had much more time to work together. On their Asian tour, the Birmingham club beat Indonesia All Stars and BG Pathum United 3-1, before putting in a respectable performance against Bayern Munich, losing 2-1 to the German champions.
But the team that thrashed Freiburg 3-0 in May's Europa League final has already undergone significant changes.
Morgan Rogers joined Chelsea, Youri Tielemans moved to Manchester United and Lucas Digne joined PSG. Jadon Sancho and Douglas Luiz have also left the club. Rogers was named the best player of the previous Europa League campaign, while both he and Tielemans scored in the final.
These are not merely cosmetic changes. Villa have lost players who were central to their play between the lines, ball progression and chance creation.
In response, the club signed Joao Gomes from Wolves, Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea and Swiss midfielder Johan Manzambi.
Gomes and Garnacho could make their debuts today.
Manzambi, however, will miss the match through injury.
And those are not Emery's most painful absences
Villa's personnel situation became significantly worse following Emery's latest announcement.
Emiliano Martinez, Ezri Konsa and Ollie Watkins will definitely miss the Super Cup. All three finished their World Cup campaigns late and were given additional rest. Amadou Onana is also absent through injury.
That leaves Emery with a difficult combination.
He is without his first-choice goalkeeper.
He is missing one of his leading centre-backs.
He does not have his main striker, who scored 21 goals in all competitions last season.
And on top of that, Rogers and Tielemans have left during the summer.
There is some positive news, however. Captain John McGinn has recovered, while Garnacho is available for the match. Boubacar Kamara, Pau Torres, Matty Cash, Emiliano Buendia and several other players who are well accustomed to Emery's demands also remain.
That is exactly what McGinn has focused on. The captain acknowledges the scale of the changes but points to something more important for Villa: the manager, the core of the team, their playing principles and their ambitions remain.
Emery admits PSG are favourites
Unai Emery made little attempt to hide behind diplomacy ahead of the final.
He called PSG the favourites and described Luis Enrique as the best manager in the world at present, pointing to his two consecutive Champions League triumphs. At the same time, the Spaniard stressed that matches against the strongest opposition show how far Aston Villa themselves have progressed.
The match also has a personal dimension for Emery.
He has won the Europa League a record five times, but the UEFA Super Cup remains an elusive competition for him: his three previous appearances, in 2014, 2015 and 2021, all ended in defeat. This will be his fourth attempt.
In 2015, his Sevilla side lost to Barcelona, who were managed by... Luis Enrique.
PSG already know how dangerous Villa can be
The Parisians are unlikely to underestimate their opponents for another reason.
The teams met in the 2024/25 Champions League quarter-finals. PSG won the first leg 3-1 at home, then took a 2-0 lead in Birmingham and appeared to have put the tie beyond doubt.
Villa responded with three goals, however, and won the second leg 3-2. PSG advanced only thanks to their first-leg advantage, winning 5-4 on aggregate.
Marquinhos specifically recalled that tie ahead of the Super Cup and admitted that playing against Emery's side was extremely difficult.
It provides a useful reference point for today's match: under Emery, Villa are capable of turning games against teams with stronger squads into uncomfortable tactical battles.
What the market says
Bookmakers, however, are clearly leaning towards PSG.
According to bet365's odds at the time of publication:
PSG win – 1.75;
draw – around 3.90;
Aston Villa win – 4.50.
PSG are therefore clear, but by no means overwhelming, favourites.
The models offer a slightly more cautious picture.
Opta's supercomputer gave PSG a roughly 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes across 10,000 simulations, compared with 29.6% for Villa and 25.5% for a draw.
Polymarket puts PSG's chances of winning in normal time at around 56%, with a draw at 25%.
Racing Post, meanwhile, considers both teams to score one of the more logical scenarios. PSG have kept a clean sheet in just one of their last seven matches, while both teams have scored in eight of Villa's last 10 games.
Where could the match be decided?
PSG have an obvious advantage in individual quality.
If Vitinha and Joao Neves gain control of midfield, while Kvaratskhelia, Dembele or Doue regularly receive the ball facing goal, Villa's reshaped defence, particularly without Konsa, could be in for a difficult night.
But the European champions' physical condition gives Emery a chance.
Villa do not need to try to dominate possession. Their opportunity lies in surviving the opening periods of PSG's positional attacks, forcing the Parisians to run without creating much and then attacking the space quickly after turnovers. This could become particularly important if the tempo begins to drop in the second half.
There is, however, a problem that tactics cannot completely solve: without Watkins, Villa lack their usual focal point for quick vertical attacks, while the departures of Rogers and Tielemans have reduced the number of players capable of carrying the ball through pressure themselves.
That makes the central question of this Super Cup rather unusual.
PSG are stronger on paper but less prepared physically. Aston Villa are better prepared but are missing several players who could have taken full advantage of their opponents' lack of sharpness.
And that is the İdman.Biz verdict: Paris Saint-Germain remain the favourites, and the absence of Martinez, Konsa and Watkins makes them fairly clear favourites.
But this should not be expected to be an easy evening for the French champions.
Especially because the Super Cup is decided over a single match, there is no extra time and Unai Emery is particularly comfortable on European nights of this kind.
For PSG, it is an opportunity to start the season in the same way the previous one ended – by lifting another international trophy.
For Aston Villa, it is a chance to prove that their Europa League triumph was not the peak of Emery's project, but the beginning of a new chapter.
Tonight in Salzburg, we will find out what matters more in mid-August: the quality of the European champions or the readiness to challenge them.
