Today, November 13, the Azerbaijan national football team will play their final UEFA Nations League group-stage match away against Liechtenstein.
As reported by İdman.Biz, the match will kick off at 23:45 Baku time. However, the encounter carries unusual significance, as Azerbaijan's promotion to a higher division is already effectively guaranteed regardless of the result.
It should be noted that UEFA has approved a new Nations League format, which will come into effect from the 2028/29 season. Instead of the current four leagues, only three will remain: A, B and C. League D will be abolished, with all six participating teams automatically moving into League C.
Therefore, Azerbaijan no longer need to win their group to secure promotion. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to consider today's match a formality. First place, additional prize money and, most importantly, a potential second chance to qualify for the UEFA Euro 2028 finals remain at stake.
How can the Nations League help Azerbaijan qualify for Euro 2028?
Under the approved regulations, teams participating in the Euro 2028 qualifiers will be divided into 12 groups. The group winners and eight best runners-up will qualify directly for the tournament.
The remaining four runners-up will enter the play-offs, where additional teams may also qualify based on their Nations League performances. This is precisely why winning the current Nations League group could prove particularly valuable.
When allocating additional play-off places, UEFA first considers the group winners from Leagues A, B and C who have failed to qualify for Euro 2028 or secure a play-off place through the regular qualifying competition.
If places remain available, the next opportunity goes to the highest-ranked of the two League D group winners.
Importantly, that team would receive priority over nations finishing second or third in higher Nations League divisions if those teams are seeking play-off qualification solely through the overall Nations League rankings.
For example, imagine that six play-off places must be allocated through the Nations League. If six or more group winners from Leagues A, B and C fail to qualify for Euro 2028, all available places could go to them.
However, if only five such teams remain eligible, the sixth place could be awarded to the highest-ranked League D group winner.
The number of available play-off places will also depend on the performances of the four Euro 2028 host nations: England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland.
All four will participate in the qualifying tournament, but UEFA has reserved two places for host nations that fail to qualify through the regular process.
If neither reserved place is required, four Euro 2028 berths will be decided through the play-offs. If one is used, three places will remain available, while the use of both reserved places would leave only two.
Depending on these circumstances, between four and nine national teams could enter the play-offs through their Nations League results.
Why should Azerbaijan keep an eye on Malta?
First of all, Azerbaijan must win their own group.
After three matches, Aykhan Abbasov's side lead League D Group 2 with five points and a goal difference of 2-1 (+1).
Lithuania occupy second place with four points and a goal difference of 3-2 (+1), while Liechtenstein sit bottom with one point and a goal difference of 0-2 (-2).
A victory today would take Azerbaijan to eight points and guarantee first place with a match to spare, as Lithuania could reach a maximum of seven points even if they defeat Liechtenstein in their final fixture.
However, Azerbaijan's battle for a potential Euro 2028 advantage would not end there.
In League D Group 1, Malta currently lead with seven points from three matches and a goal difference of 4-2 (+2).
Gibraltar have two points from two matches and a goal difference of 1-1 (0), while Andorra have collected one point from three games, with a goal difference of 1-3 (-2).
Two fixtures remain in this group. Andorra host Gibraltar on November 13, while Gibraltar face Malta at home on November 16.
Malta can therefore finish with a maximum of ten points, while Gibraltar can collect up to eight.
If Malta defeat Gibraltar, they will reach ten points and automatically finish above Azerbaijan in the overall League D rankings.
In that scenario, even a victory over Liechtenstein would not be enough for Azerbaijan to claim the special advantage reserved for the highest-ranked League D group winner in the Euro 2028 play-off allocation.
The situation would change considerably if Malta dropped points.
A draw against Gibraltar would leave Malta with eight points and a goal difference of +2. Azerbaijan would also have eight points if they defeated Liechtenstein, meaning additional criteria would determine which team finished higher.
According to UEFA regulations, when comparing group winners from different groups within the same league, the first criterion is points collected, followed by goal difference, goals scored and other indicators.
Azerbaijan currently have a goal difference of +1, compared with Malta's +2.
Therefore, a victory over Liechtenstein by at least two goals would allow Azerbaijan to overtake Malta on goal difference if the Maltese side drew their final match.
A narrow victory, meanwhile, would make the number of goals scored decisive, with further criteria, including away goals, potentially coming into play if the teams remained level.
Gibraltar must also be considered.
If Gibraltar win both remaining matches, they will finish with eight points and become Group 1 winners.
In that case, Azerbaijan could also finish on eight points, and the higher-ranked team would again be determined by additional criteria.
Gibraltar's final goal difference remains uncertain, as they still have two matches to play.
For this reason, Azerbaijan should aim not only to defeat Liechtenstein but also to secure the largest possible winning margin.
What else would victory over Liechtenstein bring?
Apart from a potential additional route to Euro 2028, finishing first in the group also carries financial benefits.
Under the published Nations League payment distribution scheme, a League D group winner receives an additional bonus of €750,000.
The money is allocated to the respective national football association.
Nations League results also influence UEFA's overall rankings, which are used to determine the seeding pots for the Euro 2028 qualifying draw.
The draw is scheduled to take place in Belfast on December 6.
A victory over Liechtenstein would improve Azerbaijan's position within League D and contribute additional points to the FIFA World Ranking.
Finally, the sporting significance should not be underestimated.
The national team are completing another stage of their development under Aykhan Abbasov, and an away victory would allow Azerbaijan to finish the group stage unbeaten, providing a positive result ahead of the European Championship qualifiers.
Thus, despite the upcoming abolition of League D and Azerbaijan's guaranteed move to a higher division, the match against Liechtenstein remains highly significant.
Victory would secure first place in the group and an additional financial bonus. Combined with favorable results elsewhere, it could also preserve a potential opportunity to compete for a place at Euro 2028.
However, even in that scenario, the final allocation of any potential play-off berth would only be determined after the conclusion of the regular European Championship qualifying campaign.
