On paper, Sabah have been handed the more favourable of the two possible opponents in the Champions League play-off round. In Baku, they were certainly hoping to face Hapoel rather than Crvena Zvezda. However, the Israeli champions did not reach the final qualifying round by chance: they beat the Serbian champions twice without conceding a single goal.
As reported by İdman.Biz, the first leg will take place on 19 August at the Giulesti Stadium in Bucharest, where Hapoel will be the nominal home side. The return leg will be played on 25 August at the Tofig Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. The winner will reach the Champions League league phase for the first time in their history, while the loser will continue their European campaign in the Europa League league phase.
Why are Hapoel playing in Bucharest?
The Israeli side are playing at a neutral venue not because the club have been suspended and not because their home stadium fails to meet UEFA requirements.
In October 2023, following an assessment of the security situation, UEFA banned matches in its competitions from being played in Israel until further notice. The decision remains in force and applies to all Israeli clubs and national teams. As a result, they must choose a home venue in another UEFA member country.
In the previous rounds, Hapoel hosted Vikingur and Crvena Zvezda in Szombathely, Hungary. For the tie against Sabah, the Giulesti Stadium in Bucharest, normally home to Rapid Bucharest, was approved.
Hapoel have therefore been deprived of the support of their Toto Turner Stadium and the familiar atmosphere of Beersheba. However, this cannot be considered a decisive advantage for Sabah: the Israeli side won both of their nominal home matches in this qualifying campaign at neutral venues.
Hapoel have played two rounds, not three
Unlike Sabah, who entered the competition in the first qualifying round, Hapoel began their campaign in the second round. The Israeli side have therefore played four matches rather than six.
Their first opponents were Icelandic side Vikingur. The opening leg was a poor one, with Hapoel losing 2-1 in Reykjavik and arguably fortunate not to suffer a heavier defeat. Goalkeeper Ofir Marciano made several saves, while the defence struggled to deal with crosses, set-pieces and quick attacks.
Hapoel's only goal was scored by Kings Kangwa. Niv Yehoshua won the ball through a high press, Igor Zlatanovic continued the move and the Zambian midfielder levelled the score. However, the Icelandic side scored the winner in the 86th minute.
In the return leg in Hungary, Hapoel struggled to break down their opponents' defence for almost an hour. Zahi Ahmed finally headed home Guy Mizrahi's cross in the 65th minute, before substitute Amir Ganah made it 2-0 with an individual run. The Israeli champions won the tie 3-2 on aggregate, but still left plenty of questions unanswered.
It was after that match that the team lost one of their key players. Kings Kangwa, who had played an important role in their title-winning campaign, joined Panathinaikos. Hapoel had previously also lost one of their leading centre-backs, Or Blorian, who continued his career with MLS side Sporting Kansas City.
It is therefore particularly noteworthy that the Israelis produced their strongest performances of the summer after Kangwa's departure.
They did not withstand the pressure – they forced Crvena Zvezda into mistakes
Before the meetings with Crvena Zvezda, Hapoel were considered the underdogs. The Serbian champions had gone into the tie on a run of four consecutive victories, with a 17-1 goal difference. But Ran Kozukh's side did not sit deep from the opening whistle.
In the first leg, Zahi Ahmed's high press forced defender Derrick Luckassen into a mistake and opened the scoring. After Matan Baltaksa was sent off in the 58th minute, Hapoel spent more than half an hour defending with 10 men, while Ofir Marciano preserved the 1-0 victory.
A siege from the home side was expected in Belgrade, but the match unfolded very differently. Hapoel did not retreat towards their own goal, instead closing down the centre of the pitch and regularly launching dangerous attacks. Igor Zlatanovic scored from a Javon East assist, before the Jamaican forward got on the scoresheet himself to make it 2-0.
The Israelis could even have scored a third, while Crvena Zvezda only created genuinely dangerous chances towards the end. Hapoel won the tie 3-0 on aggregate.
Overall, Hapoel have three wins and one defeat in qualifying, with a 6-2 goal difference. They have won their last three matches by an aggregate score of 5-0. Their six goals have been scored by five different players, meaning they are not reliant on a single goalscorer.
Hapoel can change their approach during matches
Head coach Ran Kozukh predominantly uses a 4-3-3 formation. His side are capable of controlling possession for long periods against weaker opponents, but have adopted a more pragmatic approach in Europe.
The Israelis use selective high pressing, close down the centre and try to move the ball quickly into the final third after winning possession. If the opposition takes control, Hapoel are not afraid to drop deeper and switch to a compact defensive shape.
Lucas Ventura is particularly important in midfield. The Brazilian midfielder breaks up attacks, provides cover for his team-mates and starts the team's transitions forward. Alongside him are the mobile Eliel Peretz and Niv Yehoshua. The trio do not always produce sophisticated combination football, but they maintain a high intensity and leave their opponents very little space.
In attack, Zahi Ahmed, Igor Zlatanovic and Javon East stand out. Ahmed has already scored twice in this qualifying campaign and constantly puts pressure on defenders. Zlatanovic is a classic centre-forward who scored 14 goals in the previous Israeli league season. East is physically strong, capable of holding the ball under pressure and finding space between centre-backs and full-backs. In Belgrade, he was the main protagonist, scoring once and providing an assist.
Goalkeeper Ofir Marciano and 37-year-old captain Miguel Vitor are also particularly important. The veteran no longer has his former pace, but he organises the defence and rarely loses positional battles.
Hapoel are not a team built around one superstar, but a well-drilled mechanism in which every player understands their role. That has helped them cope with the departure of Kings Kangwa.
A team of second-half specialists
There is another interesting detail. Five of Hapoel's six goals in the current qualifying campaign have come after half-time. The only exception was Zahi Ahmed's goal in the first half of the home match against Crvena Zvezda.
Sabah also produced their best football after the break in the second leg against Aarhus. All four of their goals came from the 59th minute onwards.
That means two sides who know how to increase the tempo as matches progress, respond effectively to tactical changes and preserve their physical resources for the closing stages will meet. Substitutions and the condition of the players after the 60-minute mark could therefore be just as important as the starting line-ups.
Where Sabah can find Hapoel's weaknesses
The matches against Vikingur showed that the Israeli defence does not like being forced to turn towards their own goal. If the opposition can beat the first wave of pressure, spaces appear behind the full-backs. Crosses, second balls and quick switches from one flank to the other can also cause problems.
This is where Sabah have a significant weapon. Joy-Lance Mickels, Veljko Simic and Xander Severina are quicker than many of Hapoel's defenders, while the overlapping runs of Akeem Zedadka and Tymoteusz Puchacz can create numerical advantages out wide.
However, Sabah cannot send both full-backs forward at the same time. Javon East and Zahi Ahmed are excellent at exploiting space when transitioning from defence into attack.
The battle in midfield will also be crucial. Ivan Lepinjica, Umarali Rakhmonaliev and Alexey Isaev are technically capable of playing their way out of pressure. But any loss of possession during the first or second phase of an attack could immediately turn into a dangerous Hapoel counter-attack. Two of the Israeli side's goals in this qualifying campaign have already come directly from pressing and opponents' mistakes.
Sabah scored four against Aarhus but could have won by an even larger margin. They may not create as many chances against the Israeli champions. Valdas Dambrauskas' side will have to be far more clinical.
Hapoel's aggression could work against them
Hapoel's high intensity also has a downside. In their four qualifying matches, the team have received 12 yellow cards and one red.
The Israelis are aggressive in challenges and look to stop counter-attacks in midfield. If Mickels, Severina and Simic are able to receive the ball facing goal more often and take on defenders, Hapoel's back line could quickly find itself at risk of further bookings.
For Sabah, it will be important not to allow the tie to turn into an uncontrolled physical battle. The more quickly the ball moves, the harder it will be for Hapoel to maintain their usual compactness.
Experience versus momentum
Hapoel are six-time Israeli champions. Last season, they brought the title back to Beersheba after an eight-year wait, collecting 79 points and scoring 79 goals in 36 matches.
The club also have considerably more European experience than Sabah. They have played in the Europa League group stage three times and have previously faced Celtic and Maribor in the Champions League play-offs. On both occasions, they failed to clear the final hurdle.
For Hapoel, this will be their third attempt. For Sabah, it is their first. The Azerbaijani side lack their opponents' experience in such matches, but head into the tie on a huge emotional high after their thrashing of Aarhus.
There is also plenty of euphoria in Israel. Following the victory in Belgrade, local pundits have described Sabah as a favourable opponent and a unique opportunity to reach the Champions League. Some have already almost dismissed the possibility of Hapoel being eliminated. For the Baku side, such confidence from their opponents could provide additional motivation.
So, are Hapoel a favourable opponent for Sabah?
In terms of the circumstances, probably yes. They are not Crvena Zvezda, the first leg will be played at a neutral venue and the tie will be decided in Baku. Hapoel have also lost Kings Kangwa, while their ageing defence can be tested with pace.
In terms of playing style, probably not. Hapoel can press, remain patient, defend in a low block and switch quickly into attack. They do not collapse after a poor start and have already proved that they can win games both through defensive resilience and by imposing themselves on the opposition.
Therefore, it would be premature to call Sabah favourites, but there is no reason to portray the Israeli champions as an insurmountable obstacle either. This is a closely matched tie in which the quality of Sabah's build-up under pressure and their finishing could prove decisive.
If the Azerbaijani side avoid gifting their opponents a goal in Bucharest and keep the tie alive ahead of the return leg, reaching the Champions League league phase would not be a miracle, but a genuinely realistic outcome.
